Bitcoin is an Opt-Out

In any opinion, it is fair to say we have never been close to World War III. By some opinions and arguments, we are already in WWIII. Ukraine has been at war with Russia for years and the United States has supported Ukraine. China is circling Taiwan and the United States has historically supported Taiwan as an ally. Most recently, Israel and Iran have attacked each other and this past weekend the United States military entered the conflict and bombed Iran's nuclear facilities. Where things escalate from here, no one knows. I can hope peace is quickly found and no troops are deployed to another conflict in the Middle East. For my full opinion of war, read War is a Racket by Major General Smedley D. Butler.

This is not a war newsletter, this is a Bitcoin newsletter.

Since the murmurs about the United States military entering the war became true, we saw a quick sell-off in price for Bitcoin. It briefly dipped below $100,000 as news reported that Iran would be closing the Strait of Hormuz which supplies about 21% of the world’s oil.

Since the quick sell-off and at the time of writing, Bitcoin is back above $100,000. Nothing about Bitcoin has changed, markets just don’t like uncertainty. However, this “uncertainty” has done nothing to falter or diminish my belief in the “certainty” of Bitcoin.

I believe Bitcoin only dropped lower this past weekend because it was the weekend when news of the attack occurred. As I sit here writing, the first official trading day on the stock market has not even opened since the United States Air Force attacked Iran. Since the Bitcoin markets operate 24/7/365, they bore the brunt of the immediate panic and reaction of wartime news. This is the same thing that happened in April 2024 the last time Israel and Iran attacked each other.

If you look back in recent history, geopolitical headlines have been nothing but flashes in the pan as they relate to the markets. They feel urgent in the moment but as things have played out, markets have recovered and soared to new heights. On the same level, I believe it is hard to not be emotional in the short term when these are the headlines that dominate the news cycles. My advice is to do the hard thing, and not be emotional with your assets. Nothing has changed about Bitcoin. It is still the hardest asset in the world and people are increasingly using it as an opt-out measure against inflation and are using it as a store of capital. That is a fact that does not change over any conflict in the Middle East. Emotional decisions in the short term tend to be decisions that can hurt you in the long term.

I hold two specific truths as it relates to war and Bitcoin:

1. War is About Money

At multiple levels, you could argue nearly every conflict since the 1800s stems from one group of political elite wanting to push their opinions and ideologies onto another civilization. At the root of this is money. I have spoken about this before but the reason that the United States dollar has value as a fiat currency is because people hold the belief it has value. This belief stems from the might of the US military and its spider-web global reach around the world. Conflicts in the Middle East that citizens were told were about finding WMDs never procured any weapons of mass destruction. The conflicts were waged at its core, about financial control and oil.

Additionally, Forever Wars are needed to keep the money printer running forever. Without war and the budget demands that war brings, there would be much more pent-up aggression from the citizens of this country to have its representatives balance the budget. During times of war, it is much easier to run the money printer and fund anything and everything that is desired. When the money printer goes brrrr, inflation goes higher, the dollar loses purchasing power, and hard assets will prevail. Again, I highly recommend reading the speech War is a Racket by Major General Smedley D. Butler for more on this topic.

2. People flee to safe-haven assets in times of war.

When markets are uncertain, people want to hold assets they are sure of. In the crypto space, this is why we see alt-coins get crushed compared to Bitcoin. Alt-coins are the risky bets people try to gamble with. When the casino is closed, in bear markets or periods of uncertainty, the people holding these risky assets lose. People flee to the assets that will survive. Gold has historically been the safe-haven asset people run to. In an ever-increasing digital world, Bitcoin is the digital gold and as it continues to mature, I believe more and more people will continue opting out of traditional markets, holdings, and investment opportunities in favor of Bitcoin.

It is hard to not hyper-focus on the present moment. News cycles run 24/7 and aim to capture attention for the entirety of the day. Outrage, brash headlines, and loud opinions are rampant wherever you look.

Opt out of emotional and rash thinking in the short term.

Opt into long-term and logical planning.

Opt out of fiat games.

Opt into Bitcoin.

Stack SATs.

The views and opinions expressed here are for entertainment purposes only and should, in no way, be interpreted as financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research when making an investment or trading decision, as each such move involves risk. I am not a financial advisor and do not claim to be qualified to convey information or advice that a registered financial advisor would convey to clients as guidance. Nothing contained in this e-mail/article constitutes, or shall be construed as, an offering of financial instruments, investment advice, or recommendations of an investment strategy. If you are seeking financial advice, find a professional who is right for you.