Is Uptober Here?

Three weeks ago I wrote a piece where I discussed how absolutely and utterly boring Bitcoin was. I wrote that people thought it was boring because of how long it had traded in a range from $50,000 to $70,000 with seemingly no desire to break out either way. I ended the piece by discussing historical performances on a monthly basis for Bitcoin. I highlighted that September has been Bitcoin’s worst month while October and November tend to be Bitcoin’s better-performing months of the year.

No, the title of this piece is not misleading. We are not yet in October but history is NOT repeating itself so far in September.

September gave us a scare at the beginning of the month when we dipped to around $53,000 but since then, the tides have reversed. At the time of writing, we are sitting close to $66,000, up over 10% on the month and over 20% since the month’s lows.

So the question is, did October—or Uptober—get here early?

Are we gearing up for an explosive reemergence of the bull market?

Or did the narrative for a bearish September become so strong that we reversed course and already “priced in” the impact of traditional Uptober fortune?

My honest thoughts are that I can’t say anything with complete certainty. I don’t have a crystal ball in front of me where I can tell the future and predict every ebb and flow in the market.

However, I can look at historical trends and the data and narratives in front of me to form my belief.

I know that the price explosions that follow a Bitcoin halving have happened every cycle and that they do not happen immediately. The explosions take time. We are a little over 5 months removed from the last halving. I believe we will continue to see these post-halving price explosions and expect one to occur over the next year.

I know that the Global M2 Money supply just reached an ALL-TIME high and I know that the price of Bitcoin correlates positively with this metric.

Read the below thread by Lyn Alden and Sam Callahan to get an even better sense for how Bitcoin correlates to the global M2 supply.

I know that the Bitcoin Spot ETFs continue to gobble up Bitcoin off the market and that the SEC just approved options trading for Blackrock’s $IBIT. I believe we have only seen a fraction of the demand that will continue to flow in from institutional arms and the traditional finance sectors.

I know that Bitcoin, and crypto, have become a presidential talking point and we even saw former President Trump order cheeseburgers with a Bitcoin Lightning Transaction.

With all of this going on, it is tough for me to say I am bearish.

I believe everything above only continues to lead things upward over the rest of the year. I don’t focus on the days, I hardly even focus on the weeks. I tend to look at the months and years.

With this lens, I am excited.

And my excitement may make me bullish for what is to come.

Is Uptober already here?

I think it may be.

Stack SATs.

The views and opinions expressed here are for entertainment purposes only and should, in no way, be interpreted as financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research when making an investment or trading decision, as each such move involves risk. I am not a financial advisor and do not claim to be qualified to convey information or advice that a registered financial advisor would convey to clients as guidance. Nothing contained in this e-mail/article constitutes, or shall be construed as, an offering of financial instruments, investment advice, or recommendations of an investment strategy. If you are seeking financial advice, find a professional who is right for you.