The Return

After 1 year of writing every day and 2 years of publishing weekly, I took a break. I appreciate everyone who reached out to me asking where editions of the Arc were. We are back in business. This will continue to be a weekly newsletter and will continue covering news about Bitcoin and macroeconomics, and updates that relate.

Things have not been quiet during my sabbatical. If you follow bitcoin at all, you are aware of the price action that we have seen since October 10th, and specifically in the last week. This edition aims to provide some color and commentary on what happened while also opening up to provide some perspectives on exactly where my head is at as I stand before you. I ultimately aim to bring key research before you and will let you digest them in your own time.

Before diving into the events of last week, I will go on record and say I am shocked and surprised by how the year ended for Bitcoin. At the start of 2025, I expected us to finish the year above $250,000 per coin and candidly viewed that as a “conservative” estimate of where we ultimately could go. I did believe we were in the start of a super cycle where bitcoin could reprice itself overnight to near unimaginable heights. I did not think a price of $1 million per coin was out of the question. Obviously, I was wrong in 2025—bitcoin finished down on the year. Now in level setting, none of my longer-term predictions, thoughts, or theories have wavered. I maintain that in an ever-increasingly digital and global world, bitcoin is better than gold in every single way, and I believe a day where bitcoin surpasses gold in market cap is inevitable. I believe by 2032, we see that as a reality.

In closing discussion of 2025, as a bitcoin holder, it is definitely hard to see nearly every other asset have high returns while bitcoin was down on the year, especially when gold and silver outperformed. However, the “hard” that is felt is only a pain on the ego. The reality I believe to be true is that a cheaper bitcoin today is only better for your future as a holder. A cheaper bitcoin today means your inflation-riddled, constantly printed, backed by nothing but the trust of the people, dollar purchases more bitcoin than the converse. Nothing has changed about the Bitcoin thesis. This is an enormous opportunity to add bitcoin for cheap.

Now onto 2026 and specifically the last week. This past week, bitcoin had the largest single-day drop in dollars in its history by dropping over $10,000. Thursday of last week, the price dropped from over $72,000 and briefly dipped below $60,000 before recovering. Then Friday, the price soared back up to a touching point of $70,000. From a percentage perspective, Thursday was the biggest daily drop since the bottom of the 2022 bear market.

At the same time, silver and gold both had violent swings downward during the week. Silver dropped 22% in 2 hours, and gold dropped 6-8%. These numbers in assets as large as silver and gold are comical—they traded like meme stocks.

There are many thoughts and theories as to what happened with bitcoin this past week, and a leading theory is simply capitulation. There are thoughts that a Hong Kong hedge fund was liquidated after markets turned, and their participation of the yen-carry-trade dissolved. We will know when the filings come out if this is true. The linked tweet below explains this theory further:

While I can’t say this is the only reason, it is a leading theory, especially when it seems that ETF retail holders were not the main sellers. They are holders. The amount of Bitcoin held by bitcoin ETF holders is only down ~6% since October of 2025

Speaking on a bigger picture, I really agree with the thoughts of Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise. The article below explains his thoughts that we have been in a crypto bear market since the beginning of 2025, and what he says has a lot of meaningful validity. We never saw any blow off top like in prior cycles, yes we reached multiple all-time-highs in 2025, but there was no meaningful time spent there. Additionally, the constant demand of corporations purchasing and holding bitcoin on their balance sheet led to less selling pressure and acted as “artificial demand” for the price of Bitcoin. Over the last couple of months, especially since October 10th, we have seen fewer of these purchases, which means there was less overall support for the price of bitcoin. It is a quick read, and I highly recommend it.

Looking forward in terms of price, I think it is very possible we have another leg down. We may drop back into the 50,000s; however, history tells us that we are close to the bottom.

Bitcoin was only this oversold 4 times before (bitcoin had a weekly RSI below 300. Look what happened in history:

An analyst who has appeared to hit the nail on the head recently is the account below. He has been contrarian to any “bull posting.” It is always good to see opinions on all angles, but with bitcoin, the most peaceful thing you can do is buy, hold, and live your life.

The future is yet to be determined, but I do maintain key thoughts about dealing with a lower bitcoin price. It is, of course, no fun to watch an asset you hold go down in value. The emotions you feel are anywhere from distress to sorrow to anger. However, my ultimate belief rests on the two points below:

1. If you overleveraged yourself and needed to sell bitcoin in the short term, you are in a different boat. This is a boat you should strive to never find yourself in. The short-term is difficult to predict; a longer-term outlook has provided proven winning strategies.

2. Your ego and soul naturally just hurt watching an asset you hold go down. There is no sugarcoating that.

If you aren’t in bucket point number 1, you are most likely in bucket number 2. Speaking to the people in number 2, the time to buy is when the markets are red. Nothing has materially changed about bitcoin. There is more bank adoption and acceptance of this asset than ever before. It is still the apex asset of the world and is trading at a discount. The usual claims that bitcoin was too big an asset to rapidly move in size have been debunked by the price action of both gold and silver over the last couple of months (they were increasing their market caps more than the entire market cap of bitcoin routinely).

It is also worth stating that sentiment about bitcoin is terrible. That is what 4 months of price declines, coupled with 2 big-time daily declines, will do to you. I attest these are purely “emotional” responses.

My research and conviction in bitcoin has not changed. My ego and soul are tested, but those are thoughts rooted in emotion. Logic is the prevailing guiding light, and logic tells me that humanity has always opted for scarce assets to store its value in. In an increasingly global and digital world, bitcoin is the form of sound money best set up to conquer. This is the most asymmetric bet in human history, and the actions of the last couple of months have granted you an opportunity.

I am with you.

It is always darker before it is light.

Stack SATs.

The views and opinions expressed here are for entertainment purposes only and should, in no way, be interpreted as financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research when making an investment or trading decision, as each such move involves risk. Nothing contained in this e-mail/article constitutes, or shall be construed as, an offering of financial instruments, investment advice, or recommendations of an investment strategy.